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As Africa descends into chaos on multiple fronts with two civil wars, jihadist insurgency on both the East and West coasts, multiple coups, and foreign private military companies operating within the continent, the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) faces the conundrum of being spread too thin. Africa is now considered the epicenter of jihadi terror, with the instances of attacks increasing by up to 300% since 9/11. Here is a breakdown of the terror threat on both coasts and the challenge faced by AFRICOM:
Translating to “the youth,” Al-Shabaab is an Islamic insurgent group in the Horn of Africa, particularly Somalia. After the fall of Mogadishu, Somalia was left in disarray. This instability fueled the group’s rise. Funding and recognition from Al-Qaeda allowed Al-Shabaab to grow. Its primary intent is to overthrow the current Somali government and establish a Salafist Islamic state. The group staunchly opposes foreign interference in its plans, frequently targeting both African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) and U.S. military forces. Though based in Somalia, Al-Shabaab has also conducted a multitude of attacks in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. It has also provided training and funding to the Islamic State offshoot in Mozambique (ISIS-Mozambique or ISIS-M).
On top of targeting foreign military forces, Al-Shabaab also targets Somali military and security forces, government entities, and civilian targets such as hotels, universities, and markets. A common tactic the group deploys is the two-level attack, as demonstrated in the 2023 Mogadishu Pearl Beach Hotel attack. One or several militants will detonate an improvised explosive device (IED) or vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) outside or near the target. While the targets are distracted by the explosion(s), the assailants will breach the perimeter with small arms. They maintain a strong social media presence and will often live stream attacks. Known for their brutality, they also kidnap children, forcing boys to act as child soldiers and forcing girls into sexual slavery.
Despite counter-offensives, Al-Shabaab continues to gain traction. Since the brutal Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7th, 2023, the group has surged in numbers. Al- Shabaab utilized social media to turn 10/7 into a recruiting battle cry. Recent reports have indicated that the group has partnered with the Houthis to establish a united Indian Ocean front.
In October 2015, a group of Al-Shabaab defectors formed the Islamic State-Somalia. By 2018, it was officially recognized by the Islamic State’s central command as a regional faction of ISIS. Like other Islamic State factions, it aims to create a global Islamic Caliphate. Based in the state of Puntland, ISIS-Somalia primarily utilizes IEDs, suicide bombers, and small arms to attack security forces, government officials, government-affiliated civilians, and rival armed groups. It garners its funding primarily from raids and extorting businesses, and it considers Al-Shabaab to be its chief rival.
In addition to Puntland, the approximately 500-member organization also operates in the Golis Mountains of Somalia’s Bari region. Unlike the membership of Al-Shabab, the majority of which is of local origin, the vast majority of ISIS-Somalia membership comprises foreign fighters from Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Arab countries such as Morocco and Yemen.
On November 25th, the United States Special Operations Command (SOCOM) in coordination with the Somali Federal Government, conducted strikes against ISIS-Somalia in the Golis Mountains. Flying in with MH-60 helicopters and an MQ-9 Reaper after several days of air strikes, a high ranking commander and at least 15 terrorists were killed. Among those killed were foreign fighters from Turkey, Ethiopia, and Syria, indicating that the Islamic State is still reliant upon radicalizing individuals globally.
The Sahel region of West Africa is plagued with three terror groups: the Islamic State, an Al-Qaeda offshoot called JNIM, and Boko Haram. As well as brutalizing civilians, these groups are warring with each other. The region also struggles with bandit gangs, ethnic separatist groups, government coups, and foreign mercenary organizations including Russia’s Wagner Group. The terror threat in the region became visible in the mid-2010s when Boko Haram militants kidnapped schoolgirls to keep as sex slaves and Green Beret Bryan Black was killed by ISIS. ISIS, Boko Haram, and JNIM heavily rely on IEDs and gunmen. They are also known to burn entire villages and kidnap villagers with the help of bandit gangs. As seen in the mid-2010s, women and children are often taken to be sexually exploited.
In the past year, there has been a major resurgence of these groups. During the War on Terror, French and American forces played a major role in combating Islamic insurgencies in the region. With Western forces gone and many countries in the Sahel region run by corrupt governments, terror groups are able to rapidly grow their presence. They have now captured American attention due to their widespread kidnapping and killing of West African Christians.
Though Trump ordered the rollback of American troops out of the Sahel region during his first administration, East Africa has again piqued his interest. This Fall, the president announced that he ordered the Pentagon to prepare for possible military action in the region. In a social media post, he announced:
“If the Nigerian Government continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, ‘guns-a-blazing,’ to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities,” Trump posted on social media. “I am hereby instructing our Department of War to prepare for possible action. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians!”
The situation in West Africa embodies two of America’s biggest fears: Russian influence and jihadi terror. However, AFRICOM may not be prepared to take on another fight in the continent. Unlike CENTCOM or INDOPACOM, AFRICOM has limited resources. There is only one primary military base, located in Djibouti, and a US presence of 6,500 soldiers. Previously, America had 1,000 troops in East Africa, but they were driven out after a coup in Niger. Former Blackwater CEO and Trump ally, Erik Prince, has allegedly propositioned the Pope, offering to provide security for Christians in communities being targeted by terrorists. An American private military presence is more likely than US forces on the ground.
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